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Considering the political and military aspects as stated above, the strategy planned by Argentine in “seizing back Falklands” from British seemed to be logical. At first, the invasion plan to Falklands and South Georgia would be executed by Argentine between the months of July to October 1982. Its considerations were as follows:
First, to reach the moment
before the “150 Years Anniversary” of ownership of Falkland by
British that would be celebrated in the month of March 1983. This was to avoid
the British nationalism spirit and also the arising spirit to defend Falklands
among the Falkland people.
Second, from July to October
is a winter season in southern hemisphere (including Argentine and Falklands).
Under such cold season condition, Argentine calculated that British would not
have any ability to respond to its invasion quickly.
Third, the military junta
got the information that HMS. Endurance, the only ship of Royal Navy assigned
to protect the Falkland Islands would be non-activated / withdrawn back to
England. Galtieri interpreted such matter as a “signal” of
British’s lack of attention to its colonies in South Atlantic.
Fourth, at the latest of July
1982, the Argentine Navy would have received the major parts of weaponry
purchased from France, intentionally prepared for the said invasion plan.
As already been known, in 1978 USA carried out
embargo on military equipment against Argentine. This made Argentine
unable to maintain the condition of its Skyhawks fighter planes.
Therefore, Argentine purchased the weaponry
equipment from France, either the Super
Etendards planes or air-to-surface
AM-39 Exocet, of the latest version of surface-to-surface MM-38 Exocet. The main characteristic
of AM 39 Exocet, after being launched, it would slide down till the elevation
of 6 feet above the sea surface, then it would fly at the speed of reaching
almost Mach 1 towards the target.. its range reached nearly 35 miles, more
superior than its previous version which was able to reach the range of 26
miles. As planned, in April 1982, Argentina had already got at least five
missiles of that type, and in June it would get more.
The invasion plan to Falklands had been orderly
organized, however it was not accomplished properly.The chaos due to the domestic political situation forced
the military junta to accelerate its
invasion plan, four months earlier than the original schedule.
In March 1982, demonstration and protests against the government became bigger
and bigger.
This was a warning for the military junta upon its
legitimacy in the eyes of Argentinean people. The case of Davidoff’s dispute with HMS. Endurance in South Georgia
made the situation hotter. The Argentinean military junta did not see any other
alternative, and it even considered the Davidoff’s dispute as a strong excuse
for the plan already been prepared before.
This subject was proven by a document of
conversation record between General
Galtieri and President Ronald
Reagan one afternoon before the Argentinean military invasion to
Falklands. Galtieri said, “British has threatened the Argentinean people who
legally works in South Georgia, and it is the duty of the Argentinean
Government to protect its people".
The invasion of Argentine to Falklands started on
April 2, 1982, It was proven later on after the war was over that the acceleration of approximately for four
months from the scheduled plan was a fatal mistake for Argentine.
The consideration of cold season and weather
factors, which was formerly believed very much and then neglected really became
a “bumerang” for
Argentine. The consideration on the factors of season and weather were actually
included in the Doctrine in the Sun
Tzu’s Arts of War (500 BC), “The
winner is the party utilizing the law of sky and earth”. Since there
was no hindrance from the weather of winter season, and under the logical consideration
that before entering winter in the month of July-October, the Falkland crisis
should have been settled.
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